Euro 2020 Team Rankings: Matchday 2

20 June 2021 12:45

Three teams have secured their places in the last 16 at Euro 2020 after two rounds of matches in the group stage.

While there is plenty of time for rival teams to make up ground – with the format ensuring only one side have been eliminated – many will already be making up their minds about potential champions.

The Stats Perform Euros Prediction, created by Stats Perform's AI team with the use of Opta data, has done likewise.

This model estimates the probability of the outcome (win, draw or loss) of each match, using betting market odds and Stats Perform team rankings, which are based on historical and recent performances. It considers the strength of opponents and how difficult each team's route to the final might look, based on match outcome probabilities, how the groups are made up and the seedings heading into the knockout phase.

The remainder of the tournament has then been simulated 40,000 times, with each outcome analysed, providing a percentage to assign to all 24 teams to show their chances of lifting the trophy.

Two rounds in, plenty has changed, even if the favourites have not, with every nation ranked below.

24. North Macedonia (0.0 per cent)

North Macedonia can't advance from Group C | Vadim Ghirda - Pool/Getty Images

North Macedonia have now had two goals to celebrate, but they have also been beaten in both of their matches, with their inferior head-to-head records against second-placed Ukraine and third-placed Austria meaning the debutants cannot now advance from Group C.

The minnows are the eighth side in European Championship history to lose their first two matches in the competition, with Albania the last such example in 2016.

23. Turkey (0.01 per cent)

Turkey have been abject so far | BSR Agency/Getty Images

The fixture list has been kind to Turkey as they can still beat final opponents Switzerland and finish third, an outcome that is rated at 16.1 per cent. However, their miserable goal difference – none scored, five conceded – means even victory on Sunday is unlikely to be enough to make the last 16.

They have only a 1.3 per cent chance of progressing, but Turkey should be used to misery at this stage. Since qualifying for the first time in 1996, no team have suffered more group-stage defeats at the Euros (nine – level with Russia).

22. Hungary (0.04 per cent)

Hungary earned a shock point against France | Alex Pantling/Getty Images

Hungary gave holders Portugal a scare – before losing 3-0 – and then led and held world champions France, but to make the last 16 they will need a win in Germany, playing away from the Puskas Arena's partisan crowd for the first time.

Although the Magyars have still never lost a Euros match when scoring first (two wins, two draws), they will need all three points in Munich.

21. Scotland (0.04 per cent)

Scotland earned a point against England but need a win against Croatia | Visionhaus/Getty Images

Travelling south of the border, Scotland certainly enjoyed frustrating England at Wembley and still have their Group D fate in their own hands heading into a home clash with Croatia.

But Scotland are the only team besides Turkey yet to score and have not done so now in eight of their past 12 matches at major tournaments. Steve Clarke's side will exit the competition if they do not find the net back at Hampden Park.

20. Slovakia (0.1 per cent)

Slovakia face Spain in their final group game | KIRILL KUDRYAVTSEV/Getty Images

Already having won once, Slovakia could still top their group – although they are given only a 10.1 per cent chance – but are ranked lower than numerous sides yet to taste victory.

An awful defeat to Sweden certainly did not encourage hopes of an unlikely run to the latter stages, ending a six-game unbeaten run in all competitions as they failed to attempt a single shot on target for the first time at a major tournament.

19. Finland (0.2 per cent)

Finland lost to Russia | Lars Baron/Getty Images

Finland's victory in their Euros bow against Denmark was overshadowed by Christian Eriksen's collapse, and they could not secure another result to celebrate against Russia, losing narrowly after seeing an early goal disallowed for offside.

With that effort struck off, they have hit the target just twice through two matches. Since 1980, only Sweden at Euro 2016 (zero) have managed fewer shots on target in their opening two games of a single European Championship. That shot-shy approach hardly hints at a surprise run.

18. Austria (0.3 per cent)

Austria will likely make the last 16 | Piroshka van de Wouw - Pool/Getty Images

Even after losing to the Netherlands, Austria's opening win over North Macedonia ensures they have an 83.2 per cent shot at reaching the last 16. Once there, though, they are certain to play a group winner – potentially even from the 'Group of Death' if they finish third.

Getting that far might be considered a success, however. Austria have never been beyond the group stage, where they have lost five of eight matches, failing to score in four of their defeats.

17. Czech Republic (0.3 per cent)

Patrik Schick has impressed for Czech Republic | PAUL ELLIS/Getty Images

Just seven teams have a greater chance of winning their group than the Czech Republic (42.2 per cent), with only a point now required against England at Wembley.

The path through the tournament is not looking any clearer, though, even with Patrik Schick becoming the first player since Croatia's Mario Mandzukic in 2012 to score three times across his first two Euros matches.

16. Poland (0.6 per cent)

Robert Lewandowski scored his first goal of the tournament against Spain | Quality Sport Images/Getty Images

Poland have lost only one of eight major tournament matches in Spain, drawing with their hosts on Saturday, but their chances of playing in Seville again in this tournament are remote, needing to finish third (just a 3.4 per cent chance) with results in other groups also accommodating such a route.

Robert Lewandowski and Co should concentrate instead on beating Sweden and potentially topping the pool, albeit that too is rated as only a 6.4 per cent chance. They are considered more likely to reach the semis (8.8 per cent).

15. Ukraine (0.6 per cent)

Andriy Yarmolenko has scored twice for Ukraine at Euro 2020 | Robert Ghement - Pool/Getty Images

Ukraine had lost six consecutive Euros games before beating minnows North Macedonia, only their second victory in the history of the competition.

That relatively modest achievement might not suddenly make them contenders, but Ukraine will back themselves to edge out Austria and potentially then upset a group winner in the last 16. They are rated as having a 39.4 per cent shot at making the quarters.

14. Croatia (0.9 per cent)

Luka Modric's Croatia only have one point | Petr Josek - Pool/Getty Images

Croatia's results in reaching the World Cup final three years ago boost their chances far more than their displays so far at the Euros, with top spot in Group D already off the table after losing to England and drawing with Hungary.

Zlatko Dalic's men are certainly not a side in form, with only two wins across their past 11 games in all competitions. They have lost six matches in that time.

13. Sweden (1.4 per cent)

Sweden currently top Group E | Anton Vaganov - Pool/Getty Images

Sweden cannot have won the hearts of many neutrals across two turgid group games, but they have earned four points and are yet to concede. This is only the third time they have collected clean sheets from each of their opening two matches at a major tournament.

After four wins in 19 at the Euros and World Cups, Sweden have as many again in their past seven outings, securing a 14.3 per cent probability of making the semis.

12. Russia (1.6 per cent)

Russia earned an important win over Finland | Kirill Kudryavtsev - Pool/Getty Images

A precious win over rivals Finland was far from pretty but ensured Russia have control of their destiny, likely only needing a draw against Denmark to finish second – earning a tie against the Group A runners-up – as Belgium face Markku Kanerva's debutants elsewhere.

Russia have a 27.9 per cent likelihood of getting through that last-16 match, having ended runs of six Euros games without a win and nine without a clean sheet.

11. Switzerland (1.6 per cent)

Switzerland have been uninspiring so far | Riccardo Antimiani - Pool/Getty Images

Despite earning just a single point so far and coming up well short against Italy, Switzerland rank in the top half of the competition and could be the second-placed Group A opponents for Russia in the next round.

Switzerland will need a goal swing while beating Turkey for that to happen, though, having lost by three or more goals for the first time in 76 matches in Rome. That potentially costly reverse at the hands of the Azzurri was the first such example since a 2014 World Cup defeat to France.

10. Wales (1.9 per cent)

Wales are on course for the knockout stages | Marcio Machado/Getty Images

A five-goal advantage over Switzerland, even with Italy to play, gives Wales a marginal edge in the championship picture, with a possible favourable draw giving the 2016 semi-finalists a path to the last four again (13.8 per cent chance).

Wales are potentially on course for a quarter-final in Baku, where they have played both their Euro 2020 games to this point and are unbeaten on all six of their visits (four wins, two draws).

9. Denmark (4.0 per cent)

Denmark are yet to earn a point | Stuart Franklin/Getty Images

Denmark rank this highly despite losing both their matches to date and seeing their creative talisman ruled out in shocking circumstances, but few who took in the first half of their defeat to Belgium would question their credentials.

While Denmark failed to earn a point the last time they lost their first two games at a European Championship in 2000, a win against Russia should be enough for second place. Their hopes of victory at each stage before the final are considered more remote than Sweden's, though.

8. England (5.8 per cent)

England were sloppy against Scotland | Ian MacNicol/Getty Images

England's youngest starting XI in major tournament history – with an average age of 25 years and 31 days – could not beat Scotland, although their second clean sheet of the tournament was their 14th in 18 matches in all competitions.

An airtight defence will be vital if the Three Lions are to repeat their 2018 World Cup run to the last four (25.6 per cent chance), with the unpredictable nature of Group F obscuring their view of the route at this stage.

7. Italy (6.8 per cent)

Italy have been impressive | Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

Italy are unbeaten in 29 in all competitions and have kept 10 consecutive clean sheets, their 3-0 wins over both Turkey and Switzerland thrilling the neutral.

But regardless of their result against Wales, they will play away from Rome for the entirety of a tricky knockout stage, having gone a staggering 58 competitive games without losing at home. Even so, only two teams have a better shot at making the semis (38.1 per cent chance).

6. Netherlands (7.7 per cent)

The Netherlands made it two wins from two | Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

The Netherlands are the only team assured of top spot in their group and they therefore cannot play another group winner until the semi-finals in a quirk of the draw.

However, disappointing results in recent years – missing Euro 2016 and World Cup 2018 – mean the Oranje are only given a 21.9 per cent likelihood of reaching the last four, even as they enjoy a nine-match unbeaten run outside of penalty shootouts at major tournaments.

5. Belgium (9.9 per cent)

Belgium came from behind to beat Denmark | Isosport/MB Media/Getty Images

This is the first time Belgium have won their opening two games at a European Championship, while they have 11 victories in their past 12 in group stages at major tournaments.

Continuing that form beyond this point might prove a tougher task, with a mouth-watering quarter-final against Italy potentially on the cards, but the Red Devils provided a real show of strength in Denmark.

4. Spain (10.2 per cent)

Spain have started poorly | Marcelo Del Pozo - Pool/Getty Images

Spain rank this high despite having a 16.3 per cent possibility of finishing bottom of Group E, which could well be the result if their record sequence of draws at major tournaments extends to a fifth against Slovakia.

Although winless through two matches for the first time since Euro '96, La Roja are still more likely to reach the final (18.8 per cent chance) than slump to the foot of the table.

3. Portugal (10.6 per cent)

Portugal were battered by Germany | Kai Pfaffenbach - Pool/Getty Images

It appeared as though the holders were just getting started as a late show brought three goals against Hungary, but Portugal were humbled by Germany on Saturday.

Fernando Santos' side became the first defending European champions to concede four goals in a single match in the competition, with their chances of winning the group and meeting a third-placed opponent in the last 16 now just 5.2 per cent.

2. Germany (12.2 per cent)

Germany made a statement against Portugal | Markus Gilliar/Getty Images

Germany were ranked fifth following their opening game and even that forecast might have been considered optimistic after the latest in a number of concerning results over the past 12 months.

But Joachim Low's men have leapt up the standings, with a 23.8 per cent chance of making the final, despite conceding first in a third consecutive Euros match as they beat Portugal 4-2 in a thriller.

1. France (23.3 per cent)

Griezmann scored France's equaliser | Markus Gilliar/Getty Images

Completing a top three comprised entirely of Group F rivals, France are unbeaten in nine matches at major tournaments, although a disappointing draw with Hungary ended a run of five straight wins.

That result has hardly hit their title chances, however, with Les Bleus remaining the outright favourites after reaching the final at Euro 2016 and World Cup 2018 – winning in Russia.

Source: 90min