Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics.

28 November 2011 08:51
If I've learnt anything as a Rangers fan, it's that you shouldn't believe everything you hear in the media and statistics are there to be manipulated in whatever way the person who shouts loudest wishes them to be.
 
That’s why I thought it might be an idea to properly examine the recent Scottish Government stats on sectarian crime. Released with exemplary timing, to coincide with the amendments stage of the Offensive Behaviour at Football Bill, they have been widely reported by our media as evidence that sectarianism in Scotland is a huge problem which requires this draconian bill. Is that really the case?

The first thing that struck me when reading the figures was that, despite the sensationalist headlines, it didn’t seem that a great number of offences had taken place. I know it isn’t the done thing to make light of any crime - and I’m not excusing the ones that were carried out - however the question is whether the response to sectarianism is merited by the scale of the problem. 693 charges in a year may seem significant but compare that with the last recorded figures for racist incidents in a year, 6,452, and you may start to see what I mean..

There were also 448 charges last year aggravated by reason of sexual orientation. Perhaps the cut-off figure for moral outrage is 500 charges?

In a statement that you feel might have been prepared before the figures were even released, Bishop Tartaglia, the President of the Communications Commission of the Bishops Conference of Scotland (yikes!), stated these figures were “an indicator of entrenched hostility” towards Catholics in Scotland. Well if that is the case then I would hate to be a Pakistani in Scotland as there is a great deal more evidence of “entrenched hostility” towards that group and I don’t see any new laws being brought in to deal with it.

Another aspect not adequately presented in the media was the breakdown of figures contained in the report. Firstly, of the 693 charges only 587 actually went to court: And off those 587 cases only 390 have resulted in convictions. It seems, when penning their headlines, some members of the media failed to take into account the principle of innocent until proven guilty. Why charges in which no crime was proven to be committed are included in the report is something you would need to ask the authors. I presume it can’t just be because they wanted to bump up the figures a bit?

Let’s also have a look at who the targets of this not-so-rampant sectarianism were. Well it turns out to be mainly the police. Seem like an unlikely target don’t they? Especially when you consider that there is virtually no way in which someone being ‘sectarian’ to a police officer can possibly know their actual religion. Also, as far as I am aware, the police in Scotland are not affiliated with any particular religious group in the same way as say, a football club might be. The police accounted for 41.5% of the charges. In second place in the league of receiving sectarian abuse comes a rather vague group –  ”the community”. This, when you read the report, seems to be a euphemism for “nobody in particular”. It covers people wandering down the street singing songs shouting at “nobody in particular”. This accounts for 33% of the charges. The remainder of the charges were on members of the public (22.6%) and workers (10.5%).

Once you look at the groups ‘targeted’ above it won’t surprise you that 72.5% of the charges were only for Breach of the Peace. Only 39 assault charges were recorded – there is no data in the report on how many of them actually lead to convictions. The severity is also not mentioned so we are left to guess. Of all the convictions, only 70 resulted in custodial sentences. The vast majority resulted in fines. This is not a crime wave sweeping our country.

The notes in the report also give an insight into the background to the figures. Firstly, the police reports have been interpreted by the writers of the report. This is a research project. Police reports have been examined and certain observations made, leading to a conclusion that one or other religious group was targeted. There are large gaps in the information including any data on the offender’s religion. I would argue that it is perfectly possible for two people of the same religion to be involved in an incident in which so called ‘sectarian’ language is used. Indeed I have witnessed such drink-fuelled incidents myself. Such an incident is not genuinely sectarian but a ridiculous stramash. It would be included in these figures.

Perhaps the most important statistic in relation to football and this proposed bill is that only 12.9% of these reported charges took place at football matches. So why then, Mr Salmond, do we have a bill which specifically targets football fans? Even if there was a sectarian issue in this country it certainly hasn’t been taking place predominantly at football.

I urge people to read the report. Does it really paint a picture of a deeply sectarian country? A place where Catholics, or indeed Protestants, fear to walk the streets? Where people are discriminated against because of religion? If Scotland is a sectarian country then it also is a hugely racist and deeply homophobic country. In fact it is approximately ten times more racist than it is sectarian. Have you heard any politicians on the TV or radio telling us what a racist country we live in? Have there been gay rights groups on the front page of the 'papers telling us it isn’t safe for gay people in Scotland? That they are victims of “entrenched hostility”?

The term 'Scotland’s Shame' is bandied about a lot these days in relation to sectarianism. Rangers fans are not 'Scotland’s Shame'. Even Celtic fans, despite their worsening behaviour and many people rightly taking issue with their songs glorifying terrorism, are not worthy of the tag. 'Scotland’s Shame' is that we have elected people into power who are happy to ignore society’s real problems for an easy headline. These politicians (and I include almost all of them, not just the SNP) are more interested in petty political point scoring than they are in solving real problems. Labour MSP’s seem to only object to the proposed bill on the grounds that they didn’t get to be the party to enact it. They all seem to agree that sectarianism is a massive problem despite there being little evidence to back this up. They herald these figures as if they proved their point when in fact they do quite the opposite.

The simple fact is that dwindling interest in religion and the growing number of interests whose future depends on a ‘sectarian problem’ are combining to create a situation where perpetuating this myth becomes a matter of priority. Politicians are happy to jump on any bandwagon that gets them some publicity. This week the Scottish Government announced an extra £9m to fund anti-sectarian initiatives. Ask yourself how much incentive there is for the groups receiving this money to actually admit the problem has been all but solved by the simple passage of time and natural changes in Scottish society.

Source: FOOTYMAD