The Premier League is back this weekend with a full programme of fixtures and it looks perfectly set up for an exciting final few months of the season.
Here’s what the numbers tell us about this weekend’s fixtures.
Man Utd v Tottenham
A daunting set of fixtures stands between Man United and a top four finish but despite their unconvincing campaign, Louis van Gaal’s side actually boasts the Premier League’s most clinical attack on home soil – needing an average of just 6.8 attempts to find the net. Spurs’ own front line are no shrinking violets themselves and are actually more clinical when playing away from White Hart Lane – only two top flight sides are sharper on their travels.
No other Premier League sides allow opponents to take a higher percentage of shots from inside their penalty area, where the chances of scoring are usually much greater. Just as well then that two of the best goalkeepers in the division are guarding their respective goals – whichever custodian puts in the better performance here could have a big say in the race for fourth place.
Burnley v Man City
Assuming Manuel Pellegrini’s understanding of league tables exceeds his grasp of the away goals rule, he’ll have realised that a win here will take Manchester City to within two points of Chelsea at the Premier League summit. The Blues will have two games in hand when this one finishes but the morale boost from a City win would be significant. New striker Wilfried Bony is yet to score for City but might manage to if he clears space for himself in the six yard box, which the Clarets have struggled to police this season.
Burnley shouldn’t cause too many problems for Manuel Pellegrini’s side: Martin Demichelis’ new contract may not solve all of their defensive problems, but City are up against a side who need more chances than anyone else in the top flight to score in front of their own fans.
Chelsea v Southampton
You may not have guessed it on the evidence of their performance against Paris Saint-Germain on Wednesday, but on paper Chelsea – along with visitors Southampton – are one of the Premier League’s two best defensive units. At Stamford Bridge their opponents are rarely offered a glimpse of goal, while on the road Saints restrict opponents to an average of 9.8 shots: both a league best. With the Blues tired from two hours of midweek football and the Saints struggling for goals, chances could be few and far between here.
The Blues’ chaotic undoing by PSG highlights a gap in their armour: they’ve leaked quite a few goals in the dying moments and the visiting Saints are fond of having the last word, so there could be more late heartbreak for the Stamford Bridge faithful.
Arsenal v West Ham
To say West Ham have gone off the boil would be an understatement. To make matters worse Arsenal create more chances than anyone else at home while few sides soak up more punishment on the road than the Hammers, so expect one-way traffic at the Emirates on Saturday.
No other Premier League side has scored more headed goals than the 15 Sam Allardyce’s side have managed, which accounts for over a third of their total. Their hosts have been regularly exposed in the air and should consider themselves fortunate that West Ham are missing several of their more aerially-proficient strikers.
Swansea v Liverpool
Liverpool could start this match as low as seventh in the table with everyone playing before them. Their next two Premier League games – against Man Utd and Arsenal – look substantially tougher, which is all the convincing that psychology enthusiast Brendan Rodgers should need to prioritise three points against his former employers. Both sides have been fast starters this season, getting plenty of their shots in early, so expect some purposeful opening exchanges.
Everton v Newcastle
Two of the division’s most penetrable defences will be on the same pitch at Goodison Park this weekend, as the home crowd are treated to the rare sight of a team less capable of defending than their own. Only three back lines have been easier to breach than Everton’s this season, and the flimsiest of all belongs to Newcastle, so both sides have a decent chance of drawing blood here.
Crystal Palace v QPR
The division’s leakiest home defence is going up against a back line easier to breach on the road than every side except Newcastle. After the initial excitement of Alan Pardew’s appointment, Palace have only won two of their last six league games and their new manager’s only clean sheet has come against bottom side Leicester, while QPR’s dire away performances look set to enter Premier League folklore. This fixture is unlikely to be remembered as a defensive masterclass.
West Brom v Stoke
The motto “start as you mean to go on†doesn’t appear to be widely repeated at the Hawthorns, with West Brom conceding a higher share of early goals than anybody else in the top flight this season. Visitors Stoke have flown out of the traps by comparison, with only Burnley racking up a higher percentage of their haul in the opening quarter of an hour. Peter Crouch has three of his side’s seven early strikes, so the hosts will need to track him carefully – he should be easy enough to spot.
Sunderland v Aston Villa
When two of the division’s bottom three chance creators go head-to-head, tenth place in the Match of the Day running order feels like a safe prediction – but there could be some late drama here. Villa’s goal-shy attack tend to become positively goal-phobic as matches wear on, while the Black Cats seem to find another gear, netting the Premier League’s highest share of late goals. Having said that, any goal would be welcomed like a lottery win by these two managers at the moment.
Leicester v Hull
Time is running out for Leicester to preserve their top flight status and for their manager Nigel Pearson to save his job. Saturday’s visitors Hull would make perfect house guests for Leicester: they keep to themselves and try not to get in the way, taking fewer shots than anyone else away from home – meaning Pearson’s struggling side should have ample breathing space in which to organise assaults on the Tigers’ goal.
Source: SNAPPA
