Manchester City have won the last four derbies against rivals United – and it looks like all out attack could be the route to another victory.
Here’s what the numbers tell us about this weekend’s Premier League games…
Manchester United v Manchester City
Not only has Manchester City’s title defence fizzled alarmingly in the second half of the season but there’s a real danger that they will miss out on automatic qualification for the Champions League group stage at the expense of their city rivals. Their latest defeat at the hands of Crystal Palace was their fifth in the last seven games in all competitions, which will surely give a much more fluent United side – with eight wins in their last 10 Premier League games – a psychological advantage at Old Trafford.
Manuel Pellegrini’s P45 could be winging its way to his doorstep should City slip up against their biggest rivals here. With the Chilean’s position already under much scrutiny, he’d be wise to summon his inner Schwarzenegger and go out all guns blazing. City have fired in more shots on goal than any other team when on their travels, and with Sergio Aguero firing blanks in his last five – his longest barren spell in over a year – he’d be forgiven for feeling that he is due a goal or two.
Burnley v Arsenal
Expect the ball to spend plenty of time in the air at Turf Moor this weekend as the two sides who concede the highest share of goals from headers meet. The imposing presence of Olivier Giroud gives Arsenal a ready-made outlet for a more pragmatic approach – only West Ham’s Diafra Sakho has more headed goals in the Premier League than the Frenchman’s four – while Sean Dyche’s side have taken the third highest share of shots from headers.
While Arsenal are in excellent form, Burnley have kept clean sheets in four of their previous six home encounters with the current top seven, so there’s no guarantee that the Gunners will find a way past Tom Heaton. If the Clarets can contain their visitors in the first half then their chances of sneaking a result should improve significantly given that Arsenal concede the division’s highest share of goals in the second half. Four of George Boyd’s five league goals this season have come after the interval, with his most recent strike condemning Manchester City to defeat at Turf Moor, so Arsenal would do well to keep tabs on him.
QPR v Chelsea
If QPR could mirror the sort of clinical finishing that Chelsea have demonstrated this season they’d be well clear of the scramble to avoid relegation. Despite racking up the division’s fifth highest shot total, converting them has been a problem, with only Charlie Austin netting more than five Premier League goals for Rangers this season. Against Chelsea – the most clinical away finishers in the division – they’re likely to get a masterclass, although at this stage of the season it won’t be a welcome one.
Twice on Tuesday evening QPR took the lead in their relegation six-pointer against Aston Villa, and twice they surrendered it. This does not bode well against a Chelsea team who have recovered two thirds of possible points from losing positions – the highest in the division by far – meaning that even if Rangers do squeeze their way in front at Loftus Road, they would be unlikely to stay there for long.
Liverpool v Newcastle
This fixture tends to be one of the division’s most entertaining, with only three of their past 14 league meetings seeing fewer than three goals scored. If this season’s performances are anything to go by, then we can expect a thriller of a second half: these two sides score the Premier League’s two highest shares of goals after the break. Both clubs will be looking to bounce back from recent defeats to rivals, but Liverpool should be the favourites to outscore a Newcastle side whose thoughts appear to have already turned to holiday mode with five defeats in their last six league outings.
Tottenham v Aston Villa
This clash could be billed as the battle of two in-form strikers, with Tottenham’s Harry Kane going toe-to-toe with Villa’s Christian Benteke. Both have netted hat tricks recently and have been responsible for the lion’s share of their team’s goalscoring, so will surely be the focus of attention. Given that Spurs have been the division’s most clinical side in the final 15 minutes of matches – which is when Villa’s defence have been the leakiest – it’s much more likely that Kane will have the final word here, just as he did in November when these two last met.
Swansea v Everton
The first goal is unlikely to be the last word here, with both clubs having proven that they’re not to be trusted with the lead this season. No Premier League club has dropped more points from winning positions than these two and – with arguably nothing left for either side to play for – it’s unlikely that we’ll be witnessing a particularly focused display.
West Ham v Stoke
With just two wins since December, West Ham would do well to end the season in the top half, never mind the top four they occupied back then. Fortunately this weekend they host a team who seemingly have no answer to the Big Sam style of football. Stoke have been the Premier League’s worst team at defending headers, which make up a greater share of West Ham’s shots – around one in four – than those of any top flight team. In Diafra Sakho, the Hammers have the division’s most prolific header of the ball, with five Premier League goals nodded in so far this season.
West Brom v Leicester
With the clubs in the relegation zone sparking into life lately, Tony Pulis will want at least one more win to ensure that he keeps his stuttering side in the division. Having been humbled 4-1 by QPR last weekend, he can’t afford for Leicester to follow suit at the Hawthorns. Encouragingly, the Foxes have allowed more attempts at their goal than anyone else on the road this season, so Saido Berahino won’t get many better chances to make up some ground in the top scorers chart.
Southampton v Hull
After briefly moving away from the drop zone in February, Hull have been dragged right back into the thick of it and this clash is one of five that Steve Bruce’s side have left to play against the current top seven. Bruce will be urging his players to shoot on sight against Ronald Koeman’s Saints, who have a nasty habit of conceding from distance on the rare occasions that the opposition can find a way past their defence. However Hull should be equally alert to speculative efforts from their hosts: they are the only club to have conceded a higher share of goals from outside the penalty area than Saints.
Sunderland v Crystal Palace
Logic dictates that after repelling the most shot-happy attack in the division last Monday, Crystal Palace’s defence should be in for a much easier afternoon when facing a Sunderland front line that has taken fewer shots at home than any other Premier League club. Alan Pardew has masterminded four wins in Palace’s last five and will be confident of adding another victory against a shot shy Sunderland attack – he’ll just have to be wary of the damage that Jermain Defoe can do if given space, as his former club will testify.
Source: SNAPPA
