Ahead of a very big weekend in the Premier League at both the top and bottom, we’ve crunched the numbers to see where the games will be won and lost.
Liverpool v Man Utd
Liverpool head into this clash in much better shape than when they last faced United, which was coincidentally the last time they tasted defeat: 23 matches ago.
The 3-0 humbling that was inflicted upon them at Old Trafford back in December will be tricky to repeat here – since the tactical reshuffle prompted by that loss, Liverpool’s defence has been more than twice as difficult to unlock.
The Champions League may not be a popular topic of conversation in English football at the moment, but the battle to qualify for next season’s competition is intensifying nonetheless.
Liverpool are the Premier League’s form team but they have a nasty habit of letting opponents back into matches at Anfield. United, looking to protect – or extend – a two point cushion over their rivals could take full advantage of their hosts’ insistence on doing things the hard way.
Man City v West Brom
Man City don’t have long to mourn their Champions League exit as they get the Premier League under way on Saturday lunchtime.
Naturally, Manuel Pellegrini’s side can expect to see much more of the ball than they did against Barcelona, with their visitors fond of shutting up shop when away from the Hawthorns this season. Expect Tony Pulis to park the bus and hope to catch a desperate City on the counter.
Vincent Kompany won’t have to worry about the celestial dribbling skills of Lionel Messi again for a while, but on Saturday he and his defence will have to deal with a more straightforward threat to their goal.
West Brom rely more on headers than any other top flight team and only West Ham have scored more, so allowing them any room to meet crosses in the box would be tantamount to handing Chelsea the title.
Hull v Chelsea
If Hull are to have any chance of springing an upset against the league leaders then they’ll have to navigate the opening 15 minutes of this match much more carefully than they have done so far this season.
Just over one in five of the goals the Tigers have conceded this season has come in the opening quarter of an hour, a period where Chelsea have scored 12 times – more than any other Premier League club. If Steve Bruce doesn’t prepare carefully then this tie could be over a long time before the final whistle.
Hull’s owners are putting a lot of effort into changing the club’s name, but their remaining fixtures suggest that a change in divisions is more likely.
Their run-in includes meetings with six of the current top seven, starting here with an encounter that illustrates the gulf in ability between the top and bottom clubs in the division. Chelsea have netted four more league goals in their 14 matches away from Stamford Bridge than Hull have registered in all 29 of their Premier League fixtures this season.
Southampton v Burnley
The flow of goals has dried up for Southampton lately, with just three netted in their last seven league matches – and a solitary strike is unlikely to be enough to kill off Burnley.
Even a point could move the Clarets out of the relegation zone this weekend, but after downing Man City and holding Chelsea at Stamford Bridge recently they’ll surely be gunning for all three. Sean Dyche has instilled plenty of his own fierceness into his side, who have cancelled out more leads than anyone else this season, particularly on the road.
Newcastle v Arsenal
If Arsenal want to keep their faint title hopes alive, they’d be advised to hit the ground running at St James’ Park and bag a couple of goals before the interval.
On recent evidence, goals shouldn’t be lacking: in the last six meetings between these two sides the Gunners have scored 18 times to Newcastle’s five, winning on each occasion. If John Carver is to put an end to that miserable record then his side look much more likely to threaten in the second half, when they’ve been over twice as clinical as in the first. They will just have to hope that their visitors aren’t already out of sight by then.
Tottenham v Leicester
Leicester are fast approaching the point where they have nothing left to lose and the stats suggest that they could do worse than throw the kitchen sink at Spurs.
Only Crystal Palace’s defence has required fewer shots to breach on home soil than Tottenham’s this season, so if the Foxes can probe enough then they could stage a repeat of their FA Cup victory from back in January. Three points at White Hart Lane would not only give Nigel Pearson’s side a realistic hope of survival, but effectively end Spurs’ dream of a return to the Champions League.
West Ham v Sunderland
Dick Advocaat needs to make an immediate impact if Sunderland are to stave off the threat of relegation and there are many worse places to start than a meeting with free-falling West Ham, who look ripe for the taking with just one win in their last 12 Premier League matches.
The Black Cats have struggled in front of goal this season but when they have found the net it’s often been late, which is precisely when their hosts have the most trouble scoring. Could the stage be set for Jermain Defoe to sink his former club in the dying moments?
Aston Villa v Swansea
Tim Sherwood will be desperate to make it three league wins on the bounce for Aston Villa, knowing that meetings with Man United, Tottenham and Man City make up three of their next four fixtures.
Opponents Swansea sit higher in the table than Villa’s recent scalps but have dropped more points from winning positions than any other club away from home this season. Such generosity could make their arrival at Villa Park a timely one for Sherwood, with Villa still just three points clear of the relegation zone.
QPR v Everton
These two clubs have gotten into the habit of leaving it late this season, cramming more of their shots into the final quarter of an hour than anyone else in the division.
Seeing Everton concede five goals with a dire defensive performance on Thursday evening will only encourage the likes of Charlie Austin to keep probing, as will the 17 points that the Toffees have dropped after scoring first: the most in the top flight.
Stoke v Crystal Palace
Stoke have tended to run out of steam as matches have worn on this season, getting nearly two thirds of their goalscoring done before the break.
Coincidentally this is when visitors Crystal Palace usually find another gear, meaning that this could well be the proverbial game of two halves. It’s not just late goals that the Eagles score, but crucial ones – they’ve recovered 15 points from losing positions this season, which is more than anyone except Spurs’ 16.
Source: SNAPPA
