Last weekend saw two clubs – Burnley and QPR – consigned to relegation from the Premier League, but the identity of the third team to face the drop remains undecided.
With five clubs in the frame and just two weeks of the 2014/15 season remaining, we’ve assessed the survival prospects of each.
Aston Villa, 38 points:
Southampton (a), Burnley (h)
Earlier in this campaign Southampton would have proved challenging opposition for most teams, but their recent slump in form means that a once-daunting tie now looks much less threatening. Saints have conceded eight goals in their last four outings – twice in each – and are clearly missing the presence of injured goalkeeper Fraser Forster given that the previous eight goals they conceded were spread over 14 matches.
Burnley arrive at Villa Park on the final day of the season but their attack – the most wasteful in the division – is unlikely to unduly trouble the Villa goal. The Clarets have needed 15.3 shots to score each goal and recently ended a barren streak of more than 11 hours. Tim Sherwood’s side should therefore be able to add sufficiently to their existing four point cushion to ensure that their ever-present Premier League status continues.
Leicester, 37pts:
Sunderland (a), QPR (h)
It looks, on paper at least, like the Foxes have done the hard work over the past few weeks and now have the relatively-straightforward assignment of thwarting two teams below them to guarantee their safety.
Nigel Pearson’s side have taken 18 points from a possible 21 in their last seven games – a huge turnaround in performance given they managed only 19 points from the previous 29. Their momentum, combined with significantly more lacklustre opposition than they have faced during their recent impressive surge, should see the Foxes retain their Premier League status.
Sunderland, 36pts:
Leicester (h), Arsenal (a), Chelsea (a)
The importance of Sunderland’s lunchtime win over Everton last Saturday cannot be overstated. That much-needed victory – their third in five matches – moved them out of the bottom three and above free-falling rivals Newcastle. While they have the apparent advantage of a game in hand, their final two fixtures are away to sides in the top three, which turns their next match at home to Leicester into arguably the most pivotal game remaining in the relegation battle.
The Black Cats have drawn a frustrating number of matches this season – their 15 stalemates are four higher than any other side and as many as the two teams above them combined – but a 16th against Leicester would leave both sides vulnerable to being overtaken.
Newcastle, 36pts:
QPR (a), West Ham (h)
Newcastle ended 2014 in ninth position and still sat in 11th place at the end of February with a respectable 35 points, but their collapse since then has been startling. Over two months later the Magpies have added a meagre one point to that total from the 27 on offer.
However their remaining fixtures see them face two other out-of-form sides, with QPR’s poor away performances and West Ham’s manager Sam Allardyce conceding that his side lack a goalscorer both offering hope to the Toon Army. Newcastle themselves though have failed to score in six of their last 11 matches – and have the top flight’s most porous defence, able to withstand an average of just 7.1 shots for each goal conceded: the fewest in the Premier League.
Hull, 34pts:
Tottenham (a), Man Utd (h)
Defeat to Burnley was a hammer blow to Hull’s chances of surviving this season, leaving them two points adrift of safety and therefore surely needing at least one more win from two seemingly-daunting fixtures.
Steve Bruce will be encouraged that both Tottenham and Manchester United have gone off the boil lately, with Spurs only winning one of their last six league games and failing to score in five of their last eight. Encouragingly for the Tigers, Spurs also have the third leakiest defence in the league, conceding for every 8.8 shots faced.
There is hope too against United, who have lost three of their last four and have allowed the second highest percentage of headed shots against them, while Hull have scored the third highest share of headed goals this season. It may feel like doom and gloom for Tigers’ fans, but there are still likely to be plenty of twists and turns before this season is over.
Source: SNAPPA
