This year sees one of the most interesting title races for years, with four or even five [Spurs fans] teams still in contention. But how many points will it ultimately take to win the title?
Currently Chelsea lead the way on 57 points having played 26 games, in other words they have accrued an average of 2.19 points per game.
If we assume they continue that rate of return the Pensioners would be on target to reach 83 points but would that be enough?
Yes and No!
In previous seasons 83 points or less would have scooped the title on no fewer than seven times, the last being Manchester United in the 2010-11 season winning that year with a total of 80 points.
However that was the exception in recent years, with 89 points being the requirement on average over the past ten years. In fact based on the 21 premiership seasons so far, to be crowned champions, the average points total needed has been 86.
That been said the title has been won with fewer than 86 points eight times, take 1997 when Manchester United were crowned top dogs with a measly 75 points the lowest top flight tally since the premiership begun. Or contrast it to 2012 which saw the red devils finish second with a massive 89 points, albeit only separated from Man City on goal difference.
So what does all this mean?
What is certain this season it’s mathematically impossible for anyone to surpass Chelsea’s tally of 95 achieved in the 2005 season. The most any team can achieve this year is 93, and even that would require a 12 match winning streak, which seems unlikely.
Realistically I suspect we are in for a continuation of the tight season seen so far with the ultimate champions requiring a low eighties total somewhere in an 81 – 86 point range. This leaves little margin of error at the top with an above average points return performance required by the eventual winner over the last 12 fixture.
Who do you think can put a run together and lift the premiership?