Premier League leaders Chelsea like to score early and score often – but they might find that more difficult than usual when they play Arsenal this weekend.
Here's what the numbers tell us about the top-of-the-table clash – and the rest of the weekend's games…
Arsenal v Chelsea
Arsene Wenger hasn't recorded a win over Chelsea since October 2011, but the Gunners have been in scintillating form of late – winning eight matches in a row – and they look equipped to weather an early Chelsea storm. Jose Mourinho's side have made a habit of striking early this season, forcing opponents to open up and then utilising their lightning counter-attacks to pick them off. Arsenal, however, have conceded just once in the opening 15 minutes of matches and look a much more intelligent unit than in past encounters.
A 10-point gap between these two sides means that even an Arsenal win is unlikely to catapult them into a late title surge. In lieu of late-season drama however, we could at least be treated to some last-minute excitement at the Emirates: only Aston Villa have conceded a greater share of their goals in the final 15 minutes of games this season than these two clubs.
Manchester City v Aston Villa
A four-point gap between themselves and the bottom three may not be enough to allow Villa fans to relax just yet, but they should be encouraged by their side's rediscovery of the back of the net since the appointment of Tim Sherwood. Villa are now shooting three times as effectively as they were under Paul Lambert and key to their goalscoring form has been Christian Benteke, who has scored eight times in his last six appearances. He will be confident of breaching a City defence sweating on the availability of both Vincent Kompany and Gael Clichy.
Villa may be enjoying a hot streak in front of goal recently but it's worth remembering that despite City's troubles of late, they still boast the Premier League's top goalscorer – Sergio Aguero among their ranks. The Argentinian has thrived in front a midfield that has created an incredible 17.7 shots per match on average: fully seven more per game than Villa's forwards have to work with. The visitors can ill afford to sit back and rely on Benteke to outscore his opposite number a positive result will require a team performance from Sherwood's side.
Everton v Manchester United
Defeat at Chelsea last weekend ended Manchester United's six-game winning run in the Premier League and allowed their cross-city rivals to narrow the gap to just one point in the tussle for automatic qualification into the Champions League group stage. The United defence will have to sharpen up against an Everton side who have won four of their last five matches and who specialise in converting chances from close range: a worry given that the Red Devils have allowed a greater share of shots inside their six yard box than anyone else.
Roberto Martinez's side have lacked a consistent spark this season, with their promising recent run in stark contrast to a stop-start campaign in which they have seldom convinced for a full 90 minutes. The Toffees have dropped more points from winning positions than any other Premier League team this season thanks to their inability to last the distance. United, on the other hand, have the best conversion rate in the last 15 minutes of matches and will therefore be testing their hosts' back line right up until the final whistle. Radamel Falcao – who was given a rare 90 minutes against Chelsea last week – has seen three of his four goals turn out to be the last of the game, so this encounter could see him deliver the sort of performance to make Louis van Gaal consider turning his loan into permanent transfer.
West Brom v Liverpool
It is perhaps no surprise that a Tony Pulis side relies on headers as their favoured method of attack, but West Brom's well-worn path to goal is likely to meet some obstructions when they take on Liverpool. The returning Martin Skrtel will further bolster a Liverpool defence that soaks up an average of 17 headers for each aerial goal conceded and is therefore well-equipped to neutralise Pulis' preferred approach. With the Baggies' main threat suitably nullified, Liverpool can press for the win and look to continue their pursuit of fourth-placed Manchester City.
Crystal Palace v Hull
Three consecutive defeats have left Hull teetering above the relegation places, and with games against Liverpool and Arsenal to follow Saturday's meeting with Palace – not to mention clashes with Tottenham and Manchester United before the season is out – they'll be desperate for three points against Alan Pardew's in-form side. Palace may be one of the Premier League's best performers in recent weeks, but Hull should be encouraged by their inability to keep clean sheets. It's been nine games since the Eagles have succeeded in keeping an opponent out – incidentally against Hull's fellow strugglers Leicester which should be all the encouragement Steve Bruce needs to throw bodies forward here.
Southampton v Tottenham
Southampton's defenders may have been popular among Fantasy Football managers this season, but in this battle for Europa League qualification they face a team equipped with players who can exploit their Achilles heel. Nacer Chadli and Christian Eriksen both demonstrated their ability from distance last weekend with strikes against Newcastle, taking Spurs' tally of goals scored outside the penalty area to 11' the joint most this season along with Manchester City. Long range strikes just happen to account for a quarter of the goals the Saints have conceded this season – the second highest share in the Premier League.
Stoke v Sunderland
Only Aston Villa have scored a higher share of their goals in the first half than Stoke this season, which should make uncomfortable reading for Dick Advocaat. Sunderland have managed to recover just 7.1% of possible points after falling behind in the Premier League this season the lowest share in the top flight so if the home side are allowed to strike first then it's unlikely that Advocaat's side will be able to peg them back.
Newcastle v Swansea
Fans planning a second boycott of St James Park on Saturday shouldn’t be concerned about missing too much action when their side take on Swansea. Newcastle are currently on the longest losing streak in the Premier League a run stretching six games and Swansea are likely to frustrate the home supporters who do turn up, at least in the early stages. Only Arsenal have allowed a smaller share of opponents shots in the first half of matches than the Welsh side, while Newcastle have scored less than a third of their goals before the break.
QPR v West Ham
This encounter between two sides limping towards the end of their campaigns should offer plenty of action, with no home team allowing more efforts at their goal than QPR and no away side inviting more than West Ham. With the Hammers short on striking options, QPR's knack of scoring late could be pivotal to their chances of beating the lacklustre Hammers, who have themselves offered little in the closing stages this season.
Burnley v Leicester
Leicester head to Turf Moor full of confidence and genuine hopes of avoiding relegation after three consecutive wins. A kind run of fixtures against QPR, Sunderland, Newcastle and Saturday's opponents Burnley mean that the Foxes' odds of survival have shortened dramatically. They'll fancy their chances of a fourth straight victory against the Clarets, who only have one goal from their last seven fixtures and have struggled to police their goalmouth this season. While both of these sides have scored over a quarter of their goals from inside the six yard box the third and fourth highest shares in the Premier League the home side have allowed the largest percentage of goals from close range.
Source: SNAPPA
