After its annual mid-season hiatus the Champions League is finally back this week with the first set of the last 16 clashes. For some teams this break has been welcome in helping them to sort out their domestic form, while others have found form hard to come by after their winter breaks. The draw threw up some interesting clashes and here I will preview them and predict the outcome.
PSG vs. Chelsea
These two teams met at the quarter-final stage of last year’s competition, the first leg saw Mourinho adopt a typically cautious approach, a functional Chelsea side lined up with Ramires and David Luiz (both defensive minded players) in midfield, and Schurrle as a false 9, and this showed with Chelsea having only 41% possession in the match. Lacking a presence up front Chelsea crashed to a 3-1 defeat. In the second leg PSG sat back and attempted to play on the counter while Chelsea were extremely direct and duly went through on away goals after Ba’s late goal.
This year however Chelsea’s functional style has been replaced by a more fluid, passing game and they now have a quality striker in Costa to finish off their chances. Having said that I expect Mourinho to employ a similarly cautious/ counter-attacking strategy at the Parc Des Princes. The clash is likely to be a tie of two halves (obviously!) I expect the two matches to be radically different as the team that gain the advantage in the 1st leg will sit deep in the 2nd I expect this to be Chelsea.
Prediction: 1st Leg- PSG 1-1 Chelsea
2nd Leg- Chelsea 1-0 PSG
Man City vs. Barcelona
Another clash from last year however this one took place at exactly the same stage last time as well. Last time City were outclassed over the course of both games, Barcelona enjoyed 68% and 58% possession completely stopping City from playing their attacking game. However City were criticised by various pundits for showing Barcelona too much respect as they sat off them
I expect Pellegrini to go with the same 4-4-1-1 formation as last year the question is whether he can trust Yaya Toure to put in a defensive shift after his sluggish performance away to Bayern in the group stages. If not Pellegrini may choose to play Silva on one of the flanks and Yaya Toure as the no.10 in front of Fernandinho and Fernando which would be a more defensively solid midfield. Last year Barcelona fielded Iniesta as the ‘left wing-forward’ and Messi as a false 9, however both of these players had the tendency to drop into the midfield area. This basically meant that Barcelona had a 5v3 advantage in there and thus comfortably controlled possession. This year Barcelona are all about their 3 world class forwards; Messi, Suarez and Neymar who have all been in fine form recently. As a team they come into this clash in wonderful form with a record-equalling 11 consecutive wins as of 15th February.
In terms of my prediction I expect both games to be full of goals and Barcelona’s attackers will be too hot to handle for City.
Prediction: 1st Leg Man City 1-3 Barcelona
2nd Leg Barcelona 2-1 Man City
Bayer Leverkusen vs. Atletico Madrid
These two sides have not met since the Europa League group stages in 2010 when both games were drawn 1-1. Since then however Atletico Madrid have turned into a European superpower and are favourites for this tie after reaching last year’s final. This is a fascinating clash between two energetic sides that employ markedly similar tactics with a focus on a great team ethic. Both Simeone and Schmidt advocate a 4-4-2/4-2-4 shape with a collective narrowness off the ball and defending the centre of the pitch imperiously. In recent years the 4-4-2 has been seen as too open and suicidal in the midfield battle, however these teams are challenging this idea. Where they differ however is what they are known for. Roger Schmidt’s Salzburg team were known for their energetic pressing and he has brought this to Leverkusen. While Simeone’s Atletico are recognized as the most organised defensive unit in Europe.
Interestingly however the major strengths of these teams may not be so important in this match. Leverkusen’s pressing may not have a big impact as Atletico are not obsessed with playing out from the back. While Atletico’s defensive shape will be mitigated by the fact that Leverkusen are not a possession based team and will instead exploit offensive transitions. Leverkusen may need to adjust their central congestion seeing as only 22% of Atletico’s attacks come through the middle while they top the crosses per game table in both La Liga and the Champions League. The game will certainly be a tactical battle and as much as I hope this does not translate into a cagey tie I think it will.
Prediction: 1st Leg: Leverkusen 1-1 Atletico
2nd Leg: Atletico 0-0 Leverkusen
Juventus vs. Dortmund:
This is another clash that we have not seen in recent years in fact they have not met since the 1997 Champions League final, Dortmund were crowned champions on that occasion. Dortmund’s domestic form is the biggest surprise in European football this season, they have only recently moved off the foot of the table. However their Champions League form seemed unaffected as they sealed qualification in top spot in imperious fashion. Tactically Dortmund need no introduction, Klopp has won plaudits for developing a tactically modern free flowing outfit with relatively little funds. Dortmund’s game is based around extreme intensity both in their pressing and their counter attacking. Dortmund’s counter pressing in defensive transitions (immediate aftermath of losing possession) helps the team to create chances by winning the ball close to the opponents’ goal. Klopp once said ‘Gegenpressing is the best playmaker there is’. Another main feature of their game is counter-attacking according to whoscored.com they have scored the most goals in the Champions League from counter-attacks (4).
Juventus however are attempting to translate their domestic dominance onto the European stage. Over the last few years they have been establishing a controlled possession game with their world class midfielders Pogba, Vidal and Pirlo. At 61.1% Juventus have averaged the 3rd highest possession so far in the Champions League only behind Bayern Munich and Barcelona. Significantly Juventus have switched from their 3-5-2 to Allegri’s preferred 4-3-1-2 formation. This gives Juventus more numbers in the midfield which was cited as the reason the 3-5-2 failed in Europe.
I think both teams have a similar ability level, however over the 2 legs I think that Juventus will have too much for Dortmund who will then be able to focus their attention on avoiding relegation!
Prediction: 1st leg Juventus 2-1 Dortmund
2nd leg Dortmund 1-1 Juventus
For a more in-depth tactical preview head to https://footballtactics1415.wordpress.com/
Statistics Courtesy of whoscored.com and BBC Sport
Source: DSG
