We’ve dug through the data to find out what to look out for in this weekend’s Premier League fixtures. We’re expecting a fraught display at Stamford Bridge, upset for Villa, and gift-wrapped opportunities at Selhurst Park.
Chelsea v Manchester City
In the Premier League, at least, Stamford Bridge has proved unbreachable for Chelsea’s opponents, who have managed just 15 shots on target between them this season – an average of 1.5 per match and comfortably the lowest in the division. When City roll up in west London, with Frank Lampard in tow, they do so as the most shot-happy team in the league, averaging 17.4 efforts per game: something has to give.
We think: Irresistible force meets immovable object. Okay, maybe a touch dramatic, and Bradford and Middlesbrough would probably disagree, but given that a Chelsea victory would all but end the title race we’re expecting a fraught display from both sides.
Manchester United v Leicester
In the reverse of what could arguably be crowned match of the season so far, Manchester United will seek to avenge their stunning defeat by the Foxes in September. That 5-3 walloping of Louis van Gaal’s side catapulted Leicester to the dizzy heights of seventh, with just one defeat in their opening five matches, yet it also proved to be a catalyst for their downfall: in the 17 games that followed, they have managed just 11 goals compared to United’s 27.
We think: It’s difficult to see Leicester producing another upset here – a look at their results since suggests they used up their season’s quota of luck that afternoon.
West Brom v Tottenham
Tony Pulis’ tactical nous will face a stern examination against a Tottenham side who look tailor-made to cause problems early on for West Brom. League Cup headliners Spurs not only strike late but early too, having netted seven goals in the opening 15 minutes of matches – the same amount the Baggies have shipped during this period. If the home side do fall behind, their track record of recovering isn’t great – in fact, it’s the worst in the league: having taken just three points (eight per cent) from the 13 losing positions they’ve been in.
We think: Pulis’ side will need to be at their best to stifle Harry Kane and co, but if they can survive the opening exchanges unscathed then he’ll fancy their chances of breaching a Spurs defence that consistently blows hot and cold.
Arsenal v Aston Villa
This might not be pretty for Villa – in fact it could be downright awful. Paul Lambert’s side have scored just once in their last seven matches and they’ve needed an average of 27 shots to score each goal on the road. While that’s bad enough for Villa fans, opponents Arsenal average 19 shots per game at home: the highest in the league. Suffice to say, this probably won’t end well for Villa.
We think: With just 11 goals this season Villa are on course to finish with just 20 if they continue at their current rate – don’t expect to see anything here to alter that prediction.
Crystal Palace v Everton
The Match of the Day pundits should be sharpening their tongues ahead of a clash featuring two of the poorest performing defences in the league. While Palace have seen a recent improvement in their results since the arrival of new manager Alan Pardew, it’s notable that his former club, Newcastle, are the only other side to have a softer defence than these two. Maybe something to focus on there, Alan.
We think: Romelu Lukaku and Dwight Gayle can expect plenty of gift-wrapped opportunities from two error-strewn back lines.
Liverpool v West Ham
Remember just a few weeks ago when Liverpool looked to be in terminal decline while a bullish West Ham were threatening to take a Champions League spot? Well, that’s not quite the case anymore: Liverpool, defending a six game unbeaten run and having lost just once in the last 10, host a West Ham side with only one victory in their last five. Such was the exaggeration of Liverpool’s demise that three points here would see them leapfrog the Hammers to potentially be within two points of fourth.
We think: The timing of the goals these sides have conceded could set the pattern here. West Ham concede more often before half time and Liverpool after, so returning Reds Andy Carroll and Stewart Downing may need to be patient for a breakthrough against their former side.
Source: SNAPPA
