THE MIDLANDER: I'm banking on Mick McCarthy guiding Wolves to survival

Published: 11 Mar 2010 - 15:20:49

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THE MIDLANDER: I'm banking on Mick McCarthy guiding Wolves to survival

Regular readers of this column will remember my pal, 'Miserable Dave' who stalks Molineux. We first met Dave last season in all his hand-wringing glory. Ten games to go and Dave was waiting for the inevitable implosion. Only, it never came. All that whining and moaningfor nothing. The Championship title was secured. And Dave had to keep his gob shut, as they say in the Black Country. Mick McCarthy, as it turns out, was right after all. He's back, though, is Dave. It's his time of year. Net pains: Paul Scholes scores the winner against Wolves on Saturday More from Neil Moxley... 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Should it be 4-4-2 or 4-5-1? What's in a system, anyway? Well, if memory serves, was it not the punters at St Andrew's who started chanting '4-4-2' at Alex McLeish earlier this season? Lo and behold, the formation was changed and points started flowing. It has to be said against this, however, that McLeish did not have a fully-fit Christian Benitez. As soon as the Ecuadorian was ready, the system was changed to suit. No fan power there, despite what more ill-informed commentators might suggest. However, we digress. McCarthy's logic for changing it towards the end of January was that he wanted to 'stay in matches for longer.' The Yorkshireman had detected a trend of Wolves conceding the first goal too early in games and wanted to see if a five-man midfield afforded him a greater chance of winning a game. Seven games into the experiment and it could be argued that it's made little difference. Granted, four of those matches have been against a quartet out of the top six. But the other three have been against confirmed relegation rivals. Or at least, in Birmingham's case, a team against which Wolves could be reasonably confident of success. From that, Wolves have gleaned 0.71 points per match and scored just 0.57 goals. In the previous 17 fixtures playing 4-4-2, they had collected 0.9 points per game, scoring 0.8 goals. The statistics, then, show that playing a more conventional line-up has reaped richer rewards, both in goals scored and points earned. With six of their remaining ten games away from home, the chances are that Wolves' future will be decided now by how they cope on their travels. Tough times: A Wolves fan weighs up their predicament It will be interesting to see which way McCarthy turns. For my own part, I'd like to see players who have the ability to find the net available for selection. And that means bringing Chris Iwelumo back from Bristol City for the run-in. Wolves' team is many things. On the plus side, no manager on this planet could eke out as much effort as McCarthy has from that particular set of players. They won't throw in the towel. They desperately want to stay in the Premier League. That's clear to tell. But there is a distinct lack of firepower available at this level. Take away Sylvain Ebanks-Blake and Iwelumo from that squad and it's difficult to see where goals are coming from. For instance, Jody Craddock is the second-highest goalscorer, withfour. And thirteen matches in which Wolves have failed to score is themost damnin statistic of all. Challenge: Mick McCarthy It's my personal belief that the final four games will determine whether Wolves' season will ultimately end in survival. Two away at Portsmouth and Fulham. Two at home against Sunderland and Blackburn. No-one can guess what sort of state Portsmouth will be in by May 1. Fulham's long season should finally be catching up with them by mid-April, too. Neither Steve Bruce nor Sam Allardyce's side are any great shakes away from their own patch. And both should be safe by then. After the Manchester United defeat, Kevin Doyle estimated that the club needed four victories between now and the end of the season (by the way, Doyle was excellent last week). It could be that Wolves are facing an uphill battle with a few games to go. But it is possible. Coventry City seemed to manage late, great escapes on a fairly regular basis throughout the 80s and 90s. So, just like last year, Miserable Dave is going to have to hold his nerve. It looks like being a low points total that keeps the 17th-placed in the Barclays Premier League this time out. And it probably won't come down to whether the manager picks 4-5-1 or 4-4-2. It will probably come down to old-fashioned virtues like honesty and hunger. And if that's the case, Miserable Dave might have to keep his grumbles to himself for a good while yet. My money is on Wolves staying up. But logic dictates it's going to the wire. Wolves to retain their Premier League place. Just. At some stage I'll be handing out the end-of-season Midlands' gongs. I thought Manager of the Year in this area would be cynch. If Martin O'Neill lifts the FA Cup or reaches the top four, that's a great achievement. If not, it has to go to Alex McLeish. Safety by the end of February. Incredible, given the funds he wasn't given last summer by the out-going owners. Nigel Pearson has done well at the Walkers Stadium, albeit with a half-decent budget. But I'll have to revise my opinion if Chris Coleman, working with a list of cast-offs and bargain-basement buys continues Coventry City's rise with a spot in the play-offs. Incredible. And finally... is there a Birmingham fan out there who wouldn't happily swap league places with Wolves if it meant they had reached the semi-final of the FA Cup? Thought not.