Arsenal striker Olivier Giroud was named Premier League player of the month for his impressive run of goalscoring form – and he might find Liverpool offer him opportunities to extend that run.
Here’s what the numbers tell us about this weekend’s Premier League games…
Arsenal v Liverpool
Olivier Giroud looks a prime contender to rattle Liverpool’s defence here and extend his impressive recent goalscoring record. The suave Frenchman has six goals in his last five Premier League outings and, if Arsene Wenger has done his homework, he’ll be instructed to lurk near the visitors’ six-yard box as much as possible, given that it’s an area that the Reds have struggled to protect this season.
If Liverpool are to come away from the capital with intact hopes of Champions League football next season then they’ll have to be at their best from the very first whistle. If they can keep Arsenal at bay until half time then Brendan Rodgers should be happy: the Gunners are the tightest side in the division early on but have faced the Premier League’s highest percentage of shots in second half (59.2%). This is conveniently when their visitors do most of their goalscoring: the 61.4% of Liverpool goals that have arrived after the break is the third highest in the top flight.
Manchester United v Aston Villa
United’s win over Liverpool may have opened up a five-point cushion over their rivals in the race for fourth place, but Louis van Gaal will be stressing the importance of another victory here ahead of daunting ties against Man City and Chelsea in the next two weeks. Villa netted four against Sunderland in their last away fixture – their first away goals in six games – but are unlikely to find the United defence as accommodating as their hosts were that day. The visitors still have the division’s most wasteful away attack, while their hosts have been its most clinical home side.
If United get themselves in front at Old Trafford then it’s likely to feel like a long afternoon for Villa. Tim Sherwood may be a self-professed master of motivation but even he would struggle to reinvigorate Villa in that situation: they have failed to rescue a single point when they’ve fallen behind away from home this season. United, on the other hand, have not dropped a single point when they’ve gone ahead on home soil.
Sunderland v Newcastle
In an attempt to end Sunderland’s poor record in front of goal this season (they have taken just 93 shots in 2015, the fewest in the Premier League) Dick Advocaat started with three strikers against West Ham. While it didn’t pay the hoped-for dividends that day, he’d be wise to stick to that approach against a Newcastle side that concede more easily than any other away team. The continued absence of Papiss Cisse for the visitors should give him the confidence to push bodies forward.
On the face of it, Newcastle shouldn’t be heading to the Stadium of Light with any trepidation: even if John Carver’s side fall behind, Sunderland have taken the lowest percentage of points from winning positions at home in the Premier League. That said, Carver will be anxious to put an end to the Magpies poor recent record against their north east rivals: Newcastle have lost the last four derby encounters and haven’t registered a win in this tie since August 2011.
Crystal Palace v Manchester City
Manchester City’s title defence is increasingly looking like a surrender thanks to their recent stumbles, and failure to put this game beyond Palace’s reach could cost them dear. The resurgent Londoners have recovered more points from losing positions than anyone else in the top flight, so look capable of rattling City here. Manuel Pellegrini’s team shoot more than any other Premier League side on their travels, but they will need to make their chances count to ensure that any attempts at a Palace comeback are thwarted.
Everton v Southampton
A win here for Southampton is vital to their chances of securing European football next season, as they look to regain the ground lost to their rivals after their impressive start to the season petered out. Everton’s defence has tended to get increasingly leaky as matches wear on, with a greater share of the goals they’ve conceded coming after half time than any other side. This is precisely when Southampton’s attack generally clicks into gear, and with Graziano Pelle netting a confidence-boosting goal against England this week we could witness more misery for Tim Howard as this encounter wears on.
Chelsea v Stoke
A quick start could well be in the offing here, with both of these sides among the division’s three most reliant on early goals. Diego Costa needs to pick up the pace if he’s to keep Harry Kane away from the Golden Boot he’s been eyeing ever since his blistering start to the campaign – only Kane has grabbed more goals in the opening quarter of an hour than the four he’s racked up, while Stoke’s Peter Crouch has netted three of his own early on too.
West Brom v QPR
If QPR do go down this season, it won’t be for lack of trying. Since the turn of the year, only two sides have fired in more shots per match, although their accuracy has often been their undoing. However in West Brom they face a side who seem content to plod towards the end of the season now that Tony Pulis looks to have successfully completed his trademark relegation firefighting, so the visitors should have ample opportunity to add to their paltry away points total.
Leicester v West Ham
Both of these sides have two league wins from their last 11 attempts, which combined with Leicester’s precarious situation means that Nigel Pearson has to be targeting a win here. His struggling side have actually made a decent job of defending headers – which happen to be West Ham’s weapon of choice – and therefore stand a decent chance of taking something from this game.
Burnley v Tottenham
It’s not just for England that Harry Kane has made an immediate impact: five of his Premier League goals for Spurs have come in the opening quarter of an hour, as part of an attack that likes to hit the ground running. Hosts Burnley are the only side to have fired in a greater share of their efforts in this period, with Danny Ings grabbing three of his goals early on. Whichever side prevails here, an early goal looks likely.
Swansea v Hull
Of Hull’s many shortcomings this season, the most useful to Swansea will be their vulnerability to a well-placed long shot. Their visitors have conceded a whopping 12 goals from outside the box so far – nobody else has shipped more than eight – and until the Swans replace Wilfried Bony’s muscular presence in front of goal, the long-range precision of midfielders such as Gylfi Sigurdsson and Jonjo Shelvey offers a promising alternative route past Allan McGregor.
Source: SNAPPA
