Paul Merson's picks

11 August 2009 12:13
The Premier League season is just around the corner - and once again Soccer Saturday will guide you through all of the twists and turns. Jeff Stelling and the boys will be on your screens every Saturday to talk you through one of the most intriguing seasons in the history of the Premier League and there are plenty of questions to be answered. Will Manchester United hold onto their title in the absence of Cristiano Ronaldo or will there be another name on the Premier League trophy in May? Can Manchester City gatecrash the top four or will we see a surprise name in contention for the Champions League spots? Who will be scrapping it out at the bottom? Which player will bag the most goals? Which summer transfer deals will provide the best value and which signings will we be laughing at by the end of the campaign? We asked the stars of Soccer Saturday to gaze into their crystal balls and give us their views on what we can expect in 2009/10 - as well as letting us know what they've been up to on their summer holidays. Paul Merson is never short of an opinion or two and you can check out his thoughts below... CHAMPIONS - Chelsea I don't like to sit on the fence, bit this is a situation where any team from three could win it. It couldn't be any tighter than it is this season and there is a case for all of the big three. It wouldn't surprise me if Manchester United won the league, but it wouldn't surprise me if they came third either. A few days ago I would have tipped Liverpool, but then they sold Xabi Alonso. £30million is a lot of money, but this is their best chance to win the title in 20 years so why are they selling one of their main players? If they keep their three players fit - Gerrard, Torres and Carragher - they have a chance, but who is going to supply Gerrard and Torres now Alonso has gone? If I have to pick one, I will go for Chelsea because they've been playing so well in pre season and their two centre-forwards are a real threat. They have 22 international footballers in that squad - you only have to look at their Carling Cup team to see that - and Joe Cole will be like a new signing. I'll stick my neck out and pick them, but they could easily finish third. CHAMPIONS LEAGUE SPOTS - Liverpool, Man Utd, Arsenal Chelsea, Man United and Liverpool will be the top three and Arsenal will easily finish fourth. I don't think anybody can beat them. People talk about Man City, but I saw them against Rangers in a friendly and the defending was like Keystone Cops. How people are tipping them for fourth is beyond me. I know Arsenal aren't great at the back either, but they're better than City - although I am a bit worried about the new lad from the Dutch League. However, there aren't many players better than Robin van Persie in the Premier League and they proved last year that when push comes to shove they can step it up. They've been there before. FIFTH - Tottenham This isn't easy either. It wouldn't surprise me if Everton finished above Man City this year. Mark Hughes has done great to get those players together, but now they have to gel quickly because everybody will want to beat them this year. I like the work ethic in the Everton side and they could easily finish fifth, but if they get a couple of injuries they might finish ninth. Aston Villa have got a chance if they start well, but they are missing some big players now. I think Tottenham look good, but we've been saying "this is the year" for Spurs ever since I was a player at Arsenal! They've got a top-drawer manager now and he'll get the best out of his players, so I think I'll go for Tottenham. They need to get their centre-halves fit though. SURPRISE PACKAGE - Wigan I think Stoke will stay up, but that wouldn't really be a surprise to me. They're a certainty to stay up. I'll pick Wigan as my surprise package, but not in a good way. I think they could really struggle and that will be a surprise. They've got a new manager from Swansea and he produced great football there - but what did they achieve apart from a decent cup run? They've lost Antonio Valencia, they've lost Wilson Palacios and they've lost Emile Heskey. How do they fill those boots? I am worried about them. GOING DOWN - Burnley, Birmingham, Portsmouth The three teams that come up are usually certainties to go straight back down - and all of them will struggle - but the good thing for them is that there's at least seven teams that could go down. I think Burnley and Birmingham will go down - and Wolves were shocking every time I saw them last year but they have a young, enthusiastic side and could just hang on. I'll pick Portsmouth as the third team because I just don't see where they're going to get a goal from, although there won't be five points between them, Hull, Wigan and Wolves. I do hope I'm wrong about Portsmouth though, I really do. GOLDEN BOOT - Didier Drogba I would pick Didier Drogba because on his day he's unplayable. Having signed a new contract I think he'll be much better than he was last year. I've seen him in pre-season and he looks fit and strong so I think he could be the top scorer. If you're looking for a value bet, then Dimitar Berbatov's unbelievable if he plays every week because he's about 33/1 with some bookies. He might not take penalties though, which might let him down. BEST BUY - Michael Owen He'll give Manchester United another dimension when they dominate football games. He'll get chances and he'll score goals, so when games are tight and they need a breakthrough I think he'll be the one. To get him for nothing is just phenomenal as well. BONKERS BUY - Glen Johnson If you're looking for value in a footballer, then I wouldn't pay £18million for Glen Johnson. The Premier League is not blessed with 15 world-class left wingers so I don't see how a right-back can affect a game that much. I've got nothing against the player; I think he was outstanding for Portsmouth last year, but I just don't think you should be spending that amount of money on somebody who plays at right-back. HOW HAS YOUR PRE-SEASON TRAINING GONE?I took the kids on holiday and I've played a few games for Aston Villa old boys, which has been really good. I've also seen a bit of Chelsea in pre-season and I went to see Everton so I've done a little bit of homework! I can't wait for the season to start now because this is the best year in a long, long time. We don't know which of the top three will win it - and maybe Arsenal will surprise them all? There might be a real scrap on for fourth and there are about seven or eight teams that can go down. We've got the best league in the world and it's going to be proved once again.

Source: SKY_Sports