Here's exactly how we think the Championship run-in will go

02 April 2015 16:31

The Sky Bet Championship promotion race is once again heading for a thrilling climax, with eight teams currently separated by just eight points with seven games left.

As usual, the outcome is virtually impossible to predict. But Press Association Sport’s Andy Sims has had a stab at it anyway.

Friday April 3

Brighton 2 – 2 Norwich

Norwich manager Alex Neil (Lynne Cameron/PA)
Norwich manager Alex Neil (Lynne Cameron/PA)

Chris Hughton has just about guided Brighton clear of relegation trouble and nothing would give him greater pleasure than putting one over the team who fired him 12 months ago this weekend. A stern test of Norwich’s promotion credentials.

Fulham 1 – 3 Brentford

(Stephen Pond/PA)
(Stephen Pond/PA)

The first fixture Brentford fans looked for after they were promoted was the short trip to their west London neighbours. There is added spice given what is at stake for both sides and the Bees will come out on top.

Middlesbrough 3 – 0 Wigan

(Simon Cooper/EMPICS Sport)
(Simon Cooper/EMPICS Sport)

Chastened by their 3-0 defeat at Bournemouth before the international break, Middlesbrough will come out firing on all cylinders. Wigan are showing signs of life in their battle to beat the drop but they don’t make a splash at the Riverside.

Nottingham Forest 0 – 0 Wolves

(Simon Cooper/EMPICS Sport)
(Simon Cooper/EMPICS Sport)

Wolves have left their play-off charge late but one defeat in eight has hauled them up to eighth. Forest are also in with a slim chance of a top six place but that now looks unlikely after a City Ground stalemate.

Ipswich 1 – 1 Bournemouth (5pm)

(Tim Goode/EMPICS Sport)
(Tim Goode/EMPICS Sport)

First up for leaders Bournemouth is arguably the toughest test in their run-in. Ipswich have built up a head of steam at the right time and climbed into the play-off places before the international break. A point apiece will see the Cherries slip to third.

Derby 2 – 3 Watford (7.45pm)

(Simon Cooper/EMPICS Sport)
(Simon Cooper/EMPICS Sport)

This looked like a potential title decider a few weeks ago but then Derby embarked on an untimely run of six games without a win. The news has filtered through that Bournemouth have been held by Ipswich in the earlier kick-off and the Hornets take advantage.

Graphic showing predictions in the Championship

Monday April 6

Watford 1 – 1 Middlesbrough (12.30pm)

(Richard Sellers/PA)
(Richard Sellers/PA)

It’s now first against second in the Easter Monday lunchtime kick-off. There was little to separate these two sides when they met at the Riverside in October and, while the stakes are now even higher, the outcome is the same.

Bournemouth 3 – 0 Birmingham

(Steve Paston/PA)
(Steve Paston/PA)

Back on home soil and with October’s 8-0 hammering in the reverse fixture still fresh in Brummie minds, the Blues will pose no real problems to Eddie Howe’s side, who take advantage of the noon stalemate and go top again.

Brentford 1 – 1 Nottingham Forest

(Julian Herbert/EMPICS Sport)
(Julian Herbert/EMPICS Sport)

It’s back to Griffin Park for the Bees, where they have stuttered slightly of late, and Dougie Freedman’s rejuvenated Forest dig in for a point while Brentford slip to sixth.

Huddersfield 0 – 1 Ipswich

(Tim Goode/EMPICS Sport)
(Tim Goode/EMPICS Sport)

A Huddersfield side limping towards the finish line were never likely provide much of an obstacle for Ipswich. It’s not a convincing display but a vital three points nonetheless.

Norwich 2 – 0 Sheff Wed

(Stephen Pond/EMPICS Sport)
(Stephen Pond/EMPICS Sport)

City know they need a win or they they will soon be in danger of losing ground on the three teams above them. Fortunately, mid-table Sheffield Wednesday oblige and the Canaries are still firmly in the race for the top two.

Wigan 1 – 1 Derby

(Barrington Coombs/PA)
(Barrington Coombs/PA)

Wigan have not won at home since September. Surely this won’t be the day they break that hoodoo? It isn’t but it’s another frustrating afternoon for the Rams, who are now eight points off the automatic promotion pace with five games remaining.

Wolves 2 – 1 Leeds (5.15pm)

(Barrington Coombs/PA)
(Barrington Coombs/PA)

Leeds are another team finishing a disappointing season strongly but Kenny Jackett’s side just manage to nick the victory they need in the late kick-off to steal a march on Derby and Brentford.

Graphic showing predictions in the Championship

Friday April 10

Brighton 1 – 2 Bournemouth

(Steve Paston/PA)
(Steve Paston/PA)

A short hop along the south coast is next up for Bournemouth. A tricky Friday night assignment but the Cherries know a win will crank up the pressure on their rivals playing a day later.

Saturday April 11

Derby 2 – 1 Brentford (12.15)

(Simon Cooper/PA)
(Simon Cooper/PA)

At last, relief for Steve McClaren as Brentford, who are suffering a slight dose of the play-off jitters themselves, arrive at the iPro. A first win in nine attempts for County, a vital three points and they go back above the Bees as well.

Birmingham 1 – 1 Wolves

(Mike Egerton/EMPICS Sport)
(Mike Egerton/EMPICS Sport)

A Midlands derby is up next for Wolves and a predictably scrappy affair ends all-square. They slip back to eighth but just a point off Derby in the final play-off spot.

Bolton 0 – 0 Norwich

(Mike Egerton/EMPICS Sport)
(Mike Egerton/EMPICS Sport)

Two tough trips beckon for Alex Neil’s side, starting with Bolton who have only lost once at home since October. Ordinarily, a point away from home is never a bad thing. But these are not ordinary times.

Ipswich 2 – 0 Blackpool

(Tim Goode/EMPICS Sport)
(Tim Goode/EMPICS Sport)

There’s always a surprise result at this time of year in the Championship promotion race. But this isn’t it. Town are edging clear of seventh spot and are now just a point behind Old Farm rivals Norwich in fourth.

Middlesbrough 2 – 0 Rotherham

(Richard Sellers/PA)
(Richard Sellers/PA)

More relegation battlers show up on Teesside in the shape of Rotherham. The hosts need goals as well as points but a stubborn Millers side are in no mood to roll over and it’s as you were in the top three.

Millwall 0 – 2 Watford

(Andrew Matthews/EMPICS Sport)
(Andrew Matthews/EMPICS Sport)

Relegation-bound Millwall have not won a home game since October. Watford have won six and drawn one of their last seven away matches, rattling in 17 goals along the way. Potential banana skin, right? Wrong.

Graphic showing predictions in the Championship

Tuesday April 14

Derby 3 – 0 Blackpool

(Simon Cooper/EMPICS Sport)
(Simon Cooper/EMPICS Sport)

The arrival of whipping boys Blackpool proves timely as the Rams cement their place in the play-off spots with a comfortable win. But a top-two finish is now looking like a big ask with games rapidly running out.

Ipswich 1 – 1 Cardiff

(Richard Sellers/PA)
(Richard Sellers/PA)

A visit from away-day specialists Cardiff all-but ends any faint hopes of gatecrashing the automatic promotion places. But Ipswich’s play-off fate remains firmly in their own hands ahead of a six-pointer with Wolves.

Leeds 1 – 3 Norwich

(Stephen Pond/EMPICS Sport)
(Stephen Pond/EMPICS Sport)

The Canaries remain in fourth, still within touching distance of the top two. Three points from Elland Road steadies the Norfolk nerves and sets up a Friday night cracker with third-placed Middlesbrough.

Middlesbrough 2 – 2 Wolves

(Richard Sellers/PA)
(Richard Sellers/PA)

Wolves remain in the play-off mix and head north looking to complete the double over Boro. They don’t and a point apiece does neither team any real favours with the automatic and top-six race hotting up around them.

Sheff Wed 0 – 2 Brentford

(Scott Heavey/PA)
(Scott Heavey/PA)

Brentford have slipped back outside the play-off spots but their run-in does not look too daunting and a valuable three points duly arrive at Wednesday, who will soon be sick of the sight of the promotion pack.

Reading 1 – 4 Bournemouth

(Steve Paston/PA)
(Steve Paston/PA)

Reading are still looking over their shoulders at the relegation scrap but with the small matter of an FA Cup semi-final against Arsenal four days later, they are perfect fodder for Bournemouth to take another big step towards clinching promotion.

Wednesday April 15

Nottingham Forest 2 – 2 Watford

(Andrew Matthews/EMPICS Sport)
(Andrew Matthews/EMPICS Sport)

Forest may have left their play-off bid too late but they still have a say in the promotion race. A draw leaves Watford three points off the title pace and ahead of Boro by virtue of just one goal.

Graphic showing predictions in the Championship

Friday April 17

Norwich 2 – 1 Middlesbrough

(Stephen Pond/EMPICS Sport)
(Stephen Pond/EMPICS Sport)

Victory for either side could provide a knock-out blow to the other’s promotion hopes. The Canaries have been breathing down Boro’s necks throughout the run-in and now they get their beaks in front and go second, above Watford – who play 24 hours later – by a point.

Saturday April 18

Wolves 1 – 1 Ipswich (12.15pm)

(Scott Heavey/EMPICS Sport)
(Scott Heavey/EMPICS Sport)

It’s a lunchtime kick-off for the game which could make or break these teams’ season. An edgy affair is not one for the purists and ends all-square. Ipswich’s automatic promotion bid is over and have they left the back door open for Derby and Brentford?

Bournemouth 3 – 0 Sheff Wed

(Adam Davy/EMPICS Sport)
(Adam Davy/EMPICS Sport)

It’s mid-table opposition all the way for Bournemouth. There’s every possibility the Owls will bring their flip flops to the south coast. Or could a bit of Sheffield steel yet block the Cherries march to the title? Frankly, no.

Brentford 2 – 1 Bolton

(Stephen Pond/EMPICS Sport)
(Stephen Pond/EMPICS Sport)

A first win in four at home for Brentford keeps them right in the hunt. They have been confounding expectations all season and are not in the mood to go away quietly.

Huddersfield 0 – 1 Derby

(Adam Davy/EMPICS Sport)
(Adam Davy/EMPICS Sport)

It’s a welcome three wins out of three for McClaren’s men, who climb above Ipswich and up to fifth. Automatic promotion is starting to look a big ask, however.

Watford 3 – 0 Birmingham

(Dominic Lipinski/EMPICS Sport)
(Dominic Lipinski/EMPICS Sport)

Having seen Norwich climb above them on goal difference the previous evening, Watford are not in the mood to let their season’s endeavours go to waste now. No repeat of November’s shock victory for the Blues.

Graphic showing predictions in the Championship

Saturday April 25

Brighton 0 – 1 Watford (12.15pm)

(Scott Heavey/PA)
(Scott Heavey/PA)

With Bournemouth not playing until Monday, the Hornets can move level with the leaders, albeit with an inferior goal difference. It’s an opportunity they are not going to waste. The title race, and the promotion battle, is going to the wire.

Fulham 1 – 3 Middlesbrough

(Jon Super/AP)
(Jon Super/AP)

At last some respite for the Teessiders with a trip to face a Fulham side safe from relegation but drained after a miserable season. Boro get back to winning ways but are still just off the automatic promotion pace.

Ipswich 2 – 2 Nottingham Forest

(Stephen Pond/EMPICS Sport)
(Stephen Pond/EMPICS Sport)

A tough run-in for Ipswich does not get any easier as a Forest side ending the season with a flourish arrive in Town. A third straight draw sees them slip out of the top six with a game left.

Millwall 1 – 1 Derby

(Stephen Pond/EMPICS Sport)
(Stephen Pond/EMPICS Sport)

Millwall may have already been relegated but they are belatedly fired up for their final home game in the Championship. The Rams do well to escape with a point but will it prove crucial?

Reading 0 – 2 Brentford

(Mike Egerton/PA)
(Mike Egerton/PA)

Reading’s FA Cup run has taken its toll and their heavy semi-final defeat by Arsenal at Wembley a week earlier means they are in no fit state to prevent Brentford climbing back up to fifth.

Rotherham 0 – 2 Norwich

(Barrington Coombs/EMPICS Sport)
(Barrington Coombs/EMPICS Sport)

Watford have moved five points clear with victory in the lunchtime kick-off. Bournemouth are also still catchable. Norwich need a win to take it to the final day. Rotherham don’t stand in their way.

Wigan 1 – 2 Wolves

(Daniel Hambury/EMPICS Sport)
(Daniel Hambury/EMPICS Sport)

Wolves require a victory to have any chance of stealing the final play-off spot . They manage it, but results elsewhere leave them needing a last-day victory and a dramatic goal swing. Better luck next time.

Monday April 27

Bournemouth 1 – 2 Bolton

(Andrew Matthews/PA)
(Andrew Matthews/PA)

The scene is set. Final home match, live on the box, a win will seal promotion. The fancy dress shops have been emptied, the open-top bus has been booked. It’s a carnival atmosphere. But this is the Championship, remember?

Graphic showing predictions in the Championship

Saturday May 2

Blackburn 1 – 0 Ipswich

(Stephen Pond/EMPICS Sport)
(Stephen Pond/EMPICS Sport)

Only a win will do for the Tractor Boys but even then they know it might not be enough. In fact a disappointing run-in ends in defeat and their play-off hopes are up in smoke.

Derby 2 – 0 Reading

(Ryan Browne/PA)
(Ryan Browne/PA)

The Rams kick-off knowing Ipswich could yet pip them if they slip up. Fortunately for McClaren, Reading are there to be rolled over. Play-offs for the second year running for the Rams.

Brentford 3 – 0 Wigan

(Scott Heavey/PA)
(Scott Heavey/PA)

These teams have not seen eye to eye since Wigan nicked then Bees manager Uwe Rosler. Few would have predicted how their fortunes would fluctuate since. Revenge for the Bees and a play-off spot.

Wolves 0 – 0 Millwall

(Mike Egerton/EMPICS Sport)
(Mike Egerton/EMPICS Sport)

Not even a goal avalanche would have saved Wolves’ promotion dream. Which is just as well as two disappointed teams slug out a final-day stalemate.

Middlesbrough 3 – 0 Brighton

(Anna Gowthorpe/PA)
(Anna Gowthorpe/PA)

Boro start the final day still in a four-way fight for promotion but despite strolling to victory there is no party as the scores from elsewhere filter through. Dropped points in the run-in have cost Karanka’s side and the play-offs await.

Norwich 2 – 0 Fulham

(Stephen Pond/PA)
(Stephen Pond/PA)

The maths are simple. Norwich need to win and hope Watford or Bournemouth lose. They keep their side of the bargain but will the others? It’s going to be tight….

Charlton 1 – 1 Bournemouth

(Adam Davy/EMPICS Sport)
(Adam Davy/EMPICS Sport)

Only Norwich can realistically deny Bournemouth promotion and a point should be enough given their superior goal difference. A win would seal the title. The Cherries just about survive a tense afternoon at The Valley.

Watford 2 – 0 Sheff Wed

(Dominic Lipinski/EMPICS Sport)
(Dominic Lipinski/EMPICS Sport)

Watford need a victory to secure promotion. Anything less and Norwich could snatch second place on goal difference. It’s a nerve-shredding afternoon but, once the second goal goes in, promotion is in the bag and, with all smartphones suddenly trained on events at The Valley, so is the title!

Here’s that run in again…

Graphic showing predictions in the Championship

Source: SNAPPA